Sunday, December 11, 2011

Will: independent Paul run could re-elect Obama

I cannot imagine Ron Paul running as an independent candidate if he loses the GOP nomination.

George Will is not so sure Paul won't mount a third party effort based on his massive zealot following who could care less which party he runs in. Will's column in the Rapid City Journal divines a strategy:
So, assume three things:
That Obama is weaker in 2012 than he was when winning just 53 percent of the vote in 2008. That Paul could win between 5 percent and 7 percent of the vote nationally (much less than the 18 percent that a recent NBC/Wall Street Journal poll showed prepared to vote for Paul as an independent). And that at least 80 percent of Paul’s votes would come at the expense of the Republican nominee. Based on states’ results in 2000, 2004 and 2008, and on states’ previous votes for third-party candidates, and on current polling about the strength of potential Republican nominees in particular states, it is plausible to conclude that a Paul candidacy would have these consequences:
-- It would enable Obama to carry two states he lost in 2008: Missouri (10 electoral votes), which he lost by 0.13 points, and Arizona (11), which he lost by 8.52 points to native son John McCain.

-- It would enable Obama to again win four states he captured in 2008 and that the Republican nominee probably must win in 2012: Florida (29), Indiana (11), North Carolina (15) and Virginia (13).

-- It would secure Obama’s hold on the following states he won in 2008 but that Republicans hope to take back next year: New Mexico (5), Colorado (9), Nevada (6), Michigan (16), Ohio (18), Pennsylvania (20) and New Hampshire (4).
No candidate runs as an 'Independent' unless s/he runs in the Independence Party that claims to be the third largest political party...where your candidacy loses its independence, right?


hipneck said...

I believe Ron Paul has got the republicraps by the balls, they can nominate him and watch him beet Obama or they can watch him go third party and let O bomb another continue on. Ron Paul Is an idea and the message is spreading!

larry kurtz said...

Public Policy Polling just tweeted that Paul has accelerated closing the gap in Iowa. Romney would be the beneficiary knocking Gingrich off top tier.

Duffer said...

so who would come out of the brokered convention?

Jeb Bush?

larry kurtz said...

Bite your tongue, Duff.

Duffer said...

. . . snort-type response . . .

I'll bet you the serious R cash will be held close until the convention. Great tactic really: Keep the party front/center in the news, but keep your golden boy out of the fray until the last minute. Dump a gazillion tons of cash in to media saturation and ride the high right to election day.

Obomba won't stand a chance.

Bush trilogy.