Trump tariffs trashing Midwest, South Dakota

Creighton University's Ernie Goss and his Rural Mainstreet Index have been warning of collapse for months and lenders in the Fed's 9th District, which includes South Dakota, said 80 percent of respondents said farm incomes have decreased since Joe Biden was POTUS. More supply managers and bankers expect incomes to decline next quarter because manufacturers and agriculture industries are taking a big hit. The region is in a K-shaped recession and Goss' Business Conditions Index fell to 40.5 in November from 50.5 in October so panic "regarding tariffs, inflation and slowing business activity restrained supply managers’ economic expectations." 

The November Business Conditions Index for South Dakota dropped below growth neutral falling to 49.1 from October’s 51.2 and the average weekly number of workers in the state receiving unemployment compensation is 5.1% higher. The US Dollar is in the shitter and suicide rates in the ag section are spiking.

For the ninth time in 2025, the region’s overall or Rural Mainstreet Index sank below growth neutral.

Approximately, 31.8% of bankers reported that the rural economy was in a recession.

For the 18th time in the past 19 months, farmland prices sank below growth neutral.

Approximately, 58.3% of bankers expect farmland prices to fall in 2026, with an average decline of 3.1% for all survey participants.

On average, bank CEOs expect 18.3% of farmers and ranchers in their area to record negative cash flow for 2025.

Farm equipment sales dropped below growth neutral for the 27th straight month.

According to trade data from the International Trade Association (ITA), regional exports of agriculture goods and livestock for the first eight months of 2025, compared to the same period in 2024,  fell by 5.9%.

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