10/2/24

Midwestern Trump states in 'significant recession:' Goss

Creighton University's Ernie Goss follows the economies of nine midwestern states and says manufacturing sectors in South Dakota, Missouri, and Iowa have been underperforming for at least five months straight. His Mid-America Business Conditions Index declined to 48.1 from 48.7 in August and represents the ninth time in 2024 that the index has drifted around growth neutral. Goss reports that the midwestern agricultural sector is now in a significant recession, and the region’s economic picture is lagging.

South Dakota is at full employment so expect inflation to claw higher in the coming months since the state has dropped to 48th in innovation potential, 45th in economic activity, 41st in overall economic ranking, 50th in share of technology companies and is still 47th in R&D spending per capita according to WalletHub. 

Goss says economic optimism among supply managers is waning, with about 62 percent expecting a recession or worsening conditions in the next six months.
“The overall economy is not in a recession. However, certain sectors in a recession, and I would argue right now that the manufacturing sector is in a slight recession. The agricultural sector is in a fairly significant recession.” [Creighton mfg. index slumps in Sept., pointing to mixed economic conditions ahead]
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